The National Climate Risk Assessment, two years in the making and released today, paints a picture of a profoundly altered Australia and its dire warnings demand an emergency response from the Albanese government, the Australian Conservation Foundation said.
The assessment analyses 11 priority risks under three scenarios: 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C. (The Climate Action Tracker concludes current policies set the world on a path to 2.7°C of warming by the end of this century.)
Among other frightening forecasts, the 3°C by 2090 scenario warns:
- Heat-related mortality will rise by 444% in Sydney and 423% in Darwin.
- Marine heatwave duration will increase by 161+ days/year (now 18 days on average).
- Up to 34% of coastal communities (more than 3 million people) could be at high or very high risk from regular coastal flooding, erosion and inundation.
- Disaster recovery funding could cost 7.2 times more than it does now.
- Climate hazards will reduce yields for some crops and increase livestock heat stress, lead to higher biosecurity risks and increase the risk of food insecurity.
- Species will be forced to move, adapt to the new conditions or die out, with 40 to 70% of native plant species exposed to climatic conditions they do not currently experience.
- Dead and dying trees across the nation will increase risks for tree-dependent wildlife.
“Children’s mental and physical health is being affected already and those impacts are getting worse,” said ACF’s Acting CEO Dr Paul Sinclair.
“This risk assessment must be a wake-up call for the Albanese government.
“An appropriate response to this alarm bell would be to rapidly phase out Australia’s coal and gas exports – because no matter where they are burned, they are harming Australians.
“Australia’s reformed nature laws must consider the damage global heating does to wildlife and places.
“To give Australians and our environment the best chance of holding global warming at the safest levels now possible, Australia should set a 2035 target of no less than 80%.”