With Donald Trump’s election to a second term, one of the big questions is what this means for climate action in the United States and abroad.
Given the unpredictability of a Trump administration, to some degree this is a game of ‘wait and see’. But the policies of his first term, and his election campaign rhetoric give us insight into what’s in store, and how Australia and the world should respond.
But before we get to what an incoming Trump administration will mean for climate action, we can’t lose sight of two things.
The first is that Trump doesn’t take the reins until January, so there’s several things President Biden can do in the next two months both to reduce domestic emissions and fossil fuel exports and ‘booby trap’ existing policies, such its signature multi-billion-dollar stimulus package to decarbonise the economy, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), making them more difficult to unwind.
The second is that the US climate movement is strong and prepared for a Trump presidency. It has a range of tactics to push back and work with the private sector and state governments to keep decarbonisation of the world’s second largest climate polluter on track. This isn’t a small thing, as states like California have led the way on domestic emissions reduction efforts.
Wishful thinking? Maybe, but it’s important to note that US emissions have declined 18% since 2007 and this has mostly been a linear trajectory, meaning the first Trump presidency had little impact on the rate of emissions reduction.
As for what an incoming Trump presidency has in store, we need to break this down into the three critical areas:
- Leadership and performance in international climate fora, especially the Paris agreement.
- Fossil fuel exports.
- Domestic emissions reduction policy and targets.
On the first two criteria there’s no sugar coating it, the signs are alarming.
Within six months of his first election, Trump pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement. This time we expect him to go further, by pulling out of the founding architecture for global climate negotiations altogether, the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
This is particularly concerning because to rejoin under a future administration, it will need support by a two-thirds majority of the US senate, noting that Trump has seized control of the senate for his second term.
This comes at a time when the annual climate negotiations, or Conference of Parties (COPs) have effectively stalled since the relatively effective COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, where, amongst other outcomes, language to phase down coal finally made it into the agreement. Since then, we’ve had two largely ineffective COPs in petrostates and this week’s COP in Baku, Azerbaijan is looking no different. So, for this critical decade for climate action, it’s particularly bad timing for global negotiations to weaken further with the US abandoning the Paris Accord, especially as they exercise significant influence and make up around 14% of global emissions.
All eyes will now turn to China, by far the world’s largest carbon polluter with over 30% of global emissions, to see whether they will step into the void and play a greater leadership role. There are strong geopolitical, economic, climate and air pollution reasons to do so. Without the US, Paris still covers around 85% of global emissions, so while weakened, the Paris Accord can press ahead with effective efforts to keep global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees.
When it comes to fossil fuel exports, who could miss Trump’s ‘drill baby drill’ mantra. To be fair, US oil and gas exports have been on the rise already under President Biden, with the US exporting more oil than ever, and looking to ramp up LNG exports. Trump intends to take this to the next level, including weakening the role of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and opening up the Alaskan wilderness and other areas to even greater oil and gas extraction, fracking and LNG exports.
But whether the world wants more US gas remains to be seen, with LNG exports hitting an increasingly oversupplied market, thanks in no small part to an increase in production in Australia and Qatar. This ironically may help curb the expansion plans of Woodside and Santos in exploiting new reserves in Australia, as our gas is some of the most expensive in the world.
Finally, on domestic emissions reduction the future looks less clear. Perhaps the biggest concern will be around transport emissions, where President Trump is likely to repeal policies that incentivise electric vehicle uptake, as well as weaken vehicle emissions standards.
As mentioned, Trump had little impact to slow emissions reduction in his first term, as the energy market is driving the increase of relatively low-cost renewables, and this is the case even more now compared with Trump’s first term.
Biden’s signature climate policy is the IRA, a now $200 billion decarbonisation package which has been driving emissions reduction across the economy. Only about a quarter of the stimulus is out the door, so Trump could put roadblocks in front of further expenditure, but this is easier said than done. President Biden was astute to direct over two-thirds of the stimulus towards Republican states and districts, who will be reluctant to turn off the tap to the growth of new clean industries and the jobs that flow from it.
While climate policy in Canberra is affected by what Washington does, there is no credible reason for the Albanese government to lowball ambition. There is every reason to ramp up domestic emissions reduction efforts, replace fossil fuel exports with clean energy exports via its proposed Future Made in Australian (FMiA) reforms, and take a strong 2035 emissions reduction target to Paris and the next federal election.
With less US competition, there are opportunities for Australia to get a stronger foothold in the jobs and clean industries of the future, and the Albanese government should seize the day in accelerating our climate ambition in spite, or because of, a Trump White House.
Gavan McFadzean is ACF’s Program Manager for Climate and Energy.
